IMPREX - Scientific publications

• Alvarez, J.A., 2019Uso de servicios climáticos en cuencas propensas a la sequía: Proyecto IMPREX y cuenca del Júcari AGUA  

• Andrej Ceglar, Andrea Toreti, Chloe Prodhomme, Matteo Zampieri, Marco Turco, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, 2018Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast Scientific Reports01-Aug  doi:10.1038/s41598-018-19586-6

• B. van Osnabrugge, A. H. Weerts, R. Uijlenhoet, 2017genRE: A Method to Extend Gridded Precipitation Climatology Data Sets in Near Real-Time for Hydrological Forecasting PurposesWater Resources Research53/11 doi.org/10.1002/2017WR021201

• Bart J.J.M. van den Hurk, Laurens M. Bouwer, Carlo Buontempo, Ralf Döscher, Ertug Ercin, Cedric Hananel, Johannes E. Hunink, Erik Kjellström, Bastian Klein, Maria Manez, Florian Pappenberger, Laurent Pouget, Maria-Helena Ramos, Philip J. Ward, Albrecht H. Weerts, Janet B. Wijngaard, 2016Improving predictions and management of hydrological extremes through climate services Climate Services110.1016/j.cliser.2016.01.001

• Bart van Osnabrugge, Remko Uijlenhoet, Albrecht Weerts, 2018Contribution of Potential Evaporation Forecasts to 10-day streamflow forecast skill for the Rhine river Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 10.5194/hess-2018-506

• C. Otto, S.N. Willner, L. Wenz, K. Frieler, A. Levermann, 2017Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimateJournal of Economic Dynamics and Control83 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.08.001

• C. Prodhomme, L. Batté, F. Massonnet, P. Davini, O. Bellprat, V. Guemas, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, 2016Benefits of Increasing the Model Resolution for the Seasonal Forecast Quality in EC-EarthJournal of Climate29/24 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0117.1

• Constantin Ardilouze, L. Batté, F. Bunzel, D. Decremer, M. Déqué, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Douville, D. Fereday, V. Guemas, C. MacLachlan, W. Müller, C. Prodhomme, 2017Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictabilityClimate Dynamics49/11-1210.1007/s00382-017-3555-7

• Cumiskey, Lydia, et al., 2017Developing and implementing effective (multi-hazard) early warning systems: the vital role of young professionals.UNMGCY Youth Science Policy Interface Publication – Special Edition: Disaster Risk  

• Dave MacLeod, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Antje Weisheimer, 2016Evaluating uncertainty in estimates of soil moisture memory with a reverse ensemble approachHydrology and Earth System Sciences20/7 10.5194/hess-20-2737-2016

• David A. Lavers, Florian Pappenberger, David S. Richardson, Ervin Zsoter, 2016ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for water vapor transport: A forecast tool for atmospheric rivers and extreme precipitationGeophysical Research LettersVolume 43, Issue 22 10.1002/2016GL071320

• David A. Lavers, Anton Beljaars, David S. Richardson, Mark J. Rodwell, Florian Pappenberger, 2019A Forecast Evaluation of Planetary Boundary Layer Height Over the OceanJournal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres124/9 10.1029/2019jd030454

• David A. Lavers, Ervin Zsoter, David S. Richardson, Florian PappenbergerAn Assessment of the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index for Water Vapor Transport during Boreal WinterWeather and Forecasting32/4  10.1175/waf-d-17-0073.1

• David A. Lavers, Mark J. Rodwell, David S. Richardson, F. Martin Ralph, James D. Doyle, Carolyn A. Reynolds, Vijay Tallapragada, Florian PappenbergerThe Gauging and Modeling of Rivers in the SkyGeophysical Research Letters45/15 10.1029/2018gl079019

• David García-León, Sergio Contreras, Johannes HuninkComparison of meteorological and satellite-based drought indices as yield predictors of Spanish cerealsAgricultural Water Management2131 0.1016/j.agwat.2018.10.030

• Dennis Meißner, Bastian Klein, Monica IonitaDevelopment of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central EuropeHydrology and Earth System Sciences21/12 10.5194/hess-21-6401-2017

• Dennis Wagenaar, Jurjen de Jong, Laurens M. BouwerData-mining for multi-variable flood damage modeling with limited data Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions2017-7 10.5194/nhess-2017-7

• Dennis Wagenaar, Jurjen de Jong, Laurens M. BouwerMulti-variable flood damage modelling with limited data using supervised learning approaches Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences17/9  10.5194/nhess-17-1683-2017

• Dennis Wagenaar, Stefan Lüdtke, Kai Schröter, Laurens M. Bouwer, Heidi KreibichRegional and Temporal Transferability of Multivariable Flood Damage ModelsWater Resources Research54/5 10.1029/2017WR022233

• Emma E. Aalbers, Geert Lenderink, Erik van Meijgaard, Bart J. J. M. van den HurkLocal-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?Climate Dynamics50/11-12 10.1007/s00382-017-3901-9

• Ertug Ercin, Daniel Chico, Ashok K. ChapagainVulnerabilities of the European Union’s Economy to Hydrological Extremes Outside its BordersAtmosphere10-Oct 10.3390/atmos10100593

• Federico GiudiciAdvancing reservoir operation description in physically-based hydrological models   

• Francesca Carisi, Kai Schröter, Alessio Domeneghetti, Heidi Kreibich, Attilio CastellarinDevelopment and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy)Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences18/7 10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018

• Francesco Silvestro, Nicola Rebora, Lauro Rossi, Daniele Dolia, Simone Gabellani, Flavio Pignone, Eva Trasforini, Roberto Rudari, Silvia De Angeli, Cristiano MasciulliWhat if the 25 October 2011 event that struck Cinque Terre (Liguria) had happened in Genoa, Italy? Flooding scenarios, hazard mapping, and damage estimationNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences16/8 10.5194/nhess-16-1737-2016

• G Guimarães Nobre, B Jongman, J Aerts, P J WardThe role of climate variability in extreme floods in EuropeEnvironmental Research Letters08-Dec 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7c22

• Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Frank Davenport, Konstantinos Bischiniotis, Ted Veldkamp, Brenden Jongman, Christopher C. Funk, Gregory Husak, Philip J. Ward, Jeroen C.J.H. AertsFinancing agricultural drought risk through ex-ante cash transfers Science of The Total Environment 653 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.10.406

• Geert Lenderink, Danijel Belušić, Hayley J Fowler, Erik Kjellström, Petter Lind, Erik van Meijgaard, Bert van Ulft, Hylke de VriesSystematic increases in the thermodynamic response of hourly precipitation extremes in an idealized warming experiment with a convection-permitting climate model Environmental Research Letters14/7 10.1088/1748-9326/ab214a

• Giuliani, M.; Crochemore, L.; Pechlivanidis, I.; Castelletti, A.From seasonal forecast skill to end-user economic benefit: the case of the Lake ComoPublication in EGU conference proceedings1 

• Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Fraternali, Piero; Fedorov, RomanUsing crowdsourced web content for informing water systems operations in snow-dominated catchments Hydrology and Earth system Sciences3 10.5194/hess-20-5049-2016

• Guimarães Nobre, G.Floods, droughts and climate variability – from early warning to early action.   

• Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela & Muis, Sanne & Ward, Philip & Veldkamp, Ted I.E..Reducing disaster risks by better prediction of the impacts of El Niño and La Niña.UNMGCY Youth Science-Policy Interface Publication – Special Edition: Disaster Risk Reduction  

• Guimarães Nobre, Gabriela; Hunink, Johannes E.; Baruth, Bettina; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in EuropeScientific Reports, 9(1), 1 - 13. Nature Publishing Group10 10.1038/s41598-018-38091-4

• H. Macian-Sorribes, A. Tilmant, M. Pulido-VelazquezImproving operating policies of large-scale surface-groundwater systems through stochastic programming Water Resources Research53/2  10.1002/2016WR019573

• Hannah L Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Paul J Smith, Fredrik WetterhallHow do I know if I’ve improved my continental-scale flood early warning system? Environmental Research Letters04-Dec  10.1088/1748-9326/aa625a

• Hector Macian-Sorribes, Manuel Pulido-VelazquezIntegrating Historical Operating Decisions and Expert Criteria into a DSS for the Management of a Multireservoir SystemJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management143/1  10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000712

• Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Bruno MerzUp-scaling of multi-variable flood loss models from objects to land use units at the meso-scale Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences373 10.5194/piahs-373-179-2016

• Jaime Madrigal, Abel Solera, Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Joaquín Andreu, Sonia T. Sánchez-QuispeSkill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems. Journal of Hydrology564  10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.07.046

• Jakob Zscheischler, Seth Westra, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Philip J. Ward, Andy Pitman, Amir AghaKouchak, David N. Bresch, Michael Leonard, Thomas Wahl, Xuebin ZhangFuture climate risk from compound events. Nature Climate Change06-Aug  doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3

• Jessica L. Neumann, Louise L. S. Arnal, Rebecca E. Emerton, Helen Griffith, Stuart Hyslop, Sofia Theofanidi, Hannah L. ClokeCan seasonal hydrological forecasts inform local decisions and actions? An <q>in-the-moment</q> decision-making activityGeoscience Communication Discussions 10.5194/gc-2018-12

• Jeffrey NorvilleDevelopment of a Verification Scoreboard Utility for Hydrological Forecasts   

• Jessica Neumann, Louise Arnal, Linus Magnusson, Hannah ClokeThe 2013/14 Thames Basin Floods: Do Improved Meteorological Forecasts Lead to More Skillful Hydrological Forecasts at Seasonal Time Scales?Journal of Hydrometeorology19/6   https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JHM-D-17-0182.1

• Joel Hernández-Bedolla, Abel Solera, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, María Pedro-Monzonís, Joaquín Andreu, Sonia Sánchez-QuispeThe Assessment of Sustainability Indexes and Climate Change Impacts on Integrated Water Resource ManagementWater03-Sep 10.3390/w9030213

• Johannes Hunink, Gijs Simons, Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Abel Solera, Joaquín Andreu, Matteo Giuliani, Patrizia Zamberletti, Manolis Grillakis, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Ioannis Tsanis, Femke Schasfoort, Sergio Contreras, Ertug Ercin, Wim BastiaanssenA Simplified Water Accounting Procedure to Assess Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for Agriculture across Different European River BasinsWater10-Nov doi: 10.3390/w11101976

• Johannes Hunink, Joris Eekhout, Joris Vente, Sergio Contreras, Peter Droogers, Alain BailleHydrological Modelling using Satellite-Based Crop Coefficients: A Comparison of Methods at the Basin ScaleRemote Sensing02-Sep  10.3390/rs9020174

• Joris P. C. Eekhout, Johannes E. Hunink, Wilco Terink, Joris de VenteWhy increased extreme precipitation under climate change negatively affects water securityHydrology and Earth System Sciences22/11 10.5194/hess-22-5935-2018

• Kovalevsky, D.V., Máñez Costa, M., Williams, D., Klein, B.System dynamics modeling of inland waterway transportation of cargos for energy sector supported by navigation‐related probabilistic forecastsProceedings of the 9th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software  

• Louise Arnal, Andrew W. Wood, Elisabeth Stephens, Hannah L. Cloke, Florian PappenbergerAn Efficient Approach for Estimating Streamflow Forecast Skill ElasticityJournal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0259.1

• Louise Arnal, Hannah L. Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Christel Prudhomme, Jessica Neumann, Blazej Krzeminski, Florian PappenbergerSkilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?Hydrology and Earth System Sciences22/4  10.5194/hess-22-2057-2018

• Louise Arnal, Maria-Helena Ramos, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Hannah Louise Cloke, Elisabeth Stephens, Fredrik Wetterhall, Schalk Jan van Andel, Florian PappenbergerWillingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making gameHydrology and Earth System Sciences20/8  10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016

• M.-H. Ramos, A. Castelletti, M. Pulido-Velazquez, D. GustafssonWeather and Climate Services for Hydropower ManagementProceedings of Workshop SHF HydroES 2016  

• Magnus Lindskog, Tomas LandeliusShort-Range Numerical Weather Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Events Using Enhanced Surface Data AssimilationAtmosphere10-Oct  doi:10.3390/atmos10100587

• Manolis Grillakis, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Ioannis TsanisImproving Seasonal Forecasts for Basin Scale Hydrological ApplicationsWater43749  10.3390/W10111593

• Manon CassagnoleEtude du lien entre la qualité des prévisions hydrologiques et leur valeur économique : cas du secteur hydroélectriqueThesis  

• Marco Turco, Andrej Ceglar, Chloé Prodhomme, Albert Soret, Andrea Toreti, J Doblas-Reyes FranciscoSummer drought predictability over Europe: empirical versus dynamical forecasts. Environmental Research Letters43807  10.1088/1748-9326/aa7859

• Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello ProvenzaleSkilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions Nature Communications43709   10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0

• Marta Zaniolo, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea Francesco Castelletti, Manuel Pulido-VelazquezAutomatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences22/4  10.5194/hess-22-2409-2018

• Máñez Costa, M., Kovalevsky, D.Participatory system dynamics modelling for adaptation to extreme hydrological events under conditions of climate changeProceedings of the 36th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society  

• Niti Mishra, Chloé Prodhomme, Virginie GuemasMulti-model skill assessment of seasonal temperature and precipitation forecasts over EuropeClimate Dynamics   10.1007/s00382-018-4404-z

• R. Emerton, H. L. Cloke, E. M. Stephens, E. Zsoter, S. J. Woolnough, F. PappenbergerComplex picture for likelihood of ENSO-driven flood hazardNature Communications8   10.1038/ncomms14796

• Rachele TarantolaAssessing climate change impact on Alpine Hydropower: a case study in the Italian Alps   

• Reinhard Schiemann, Marie-Estelle Demory, Len C. Shaffrey, Jane Strachan, Pier Luigi Vidale, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Malcolm J. Roberts, Mio Matsueda, Michael F. Wehner, Thomas JungThe Resolution Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere Blocking in Four 25-km Atmospheric Global Circulation ModelsJournal of Climate30/1 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0100.1

• Reinhard Schiemann, Pier Luigi Vidale, Len C. Shaffrey, Stephanie J. Johnson, Malcolm J. Roberts, Marie-Estelle Demory, Matthew S. Mizielinski, Jane Strachan. Mean and extreme precipitation over European river basins better simulated in a 25 km AGCM Hydrology and Earth System Sciences22/7 10.5194/hess-22-3933-2018

• Rui Figueiredo, Kai Schröter, Alexander Weiss-Motz, Mario L. V. Martina, Heidi KreibichMulti-model ensembles for assessment of flood losses and associated uncertaintyNatural Hazards and Earth System Sciences18/5 10.5194/nhess-18-1297-2018

• Sacha GarnierEvaluation de la qualité des prévisions saisonnières de pluies et débits en FranceThesis  

• Sanne Muis, Ivan D. Haigh, Gabriela Guimarães Nobre, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Philip J. WardInfluence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on Global Coastal FloodingEarth's Future43625 10.1029/2018EF000909

• Sara Suárez-Almiñana, María Pedro-Monzonís, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Joaquín Andreu, Abel SoleraLinking Pan-European data to the local scale for decision making for global change and water scarcity within water resources planning and management Science of The Total Environment603-604 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.05.259

• Simona Denaro, Daniela Anghileri, Matteo Giuliani, Andrea CastellettiInforming the operations of water reservoirs over multiple temporal scales by direct use of hydro-meteorological data Advances in Water Resources103 10.1016/j.advwatres.2017.02.012

• Sven N. Willner, Anders Levermann, Fang Zhao, Katja FrielerAdaptation required to preserve future high-end river flood risk at present levels Science Advances43556 10.1126/sciadv.aao1914

• Sven Norman Willner, Christian Otto, Anders LevermannGlobal economic response to river floods Nature Climate Change07-Aug  10.1038/s41558-018-0173-2

• Sándor Baran, Martin Leutbecher, Marianna Szabó, Zied Ben BouallègueStatistical post‐processing of dual‐resolution ensemble forecasts Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society   10.1002/qj.3521

• Zakia Sultana, Tobias Sieg, Patric Kellermann, Meike Müller, Heidi KreibichAssessment of Business Interruption of Flood-Affected Companies Using Random ForestsWater08-Oct  10.3390/w10081049